TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A tropical disturbance designated 96W could intensify into Typhoon Fengshen (風神) by Friday (Oct. 17), becoming the year's 24th typhoon. The Taiwan Typhoon Forum (台灣颱風論壇), a weather monitoring organization, reported the system is consolidating south of Guam in favorable conditions with high sea temperatures and low wind shear.
The Taiwan Typhoon Forum noted rapid weakening of the high-pressure system could direct 96W northward toward Taiwan. Slower weakening would steer the system westward, threatening the Philippines' Luzon Island while sparing Taiwan. Weather models show significant discrepancies regarding the storm's northerly turn timing as the northeast monsoon strengthens.
The disturbance will approach the Philippines by Sunday (Oct. 19), coinciding with the northeast monsoon's southward advance. Interaction between 96W's warm, moist air and the monsoon could trigger sustained rainfall over Greater Taipei, northern mountains, and eastern regions including Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung. The companion effect would persist from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday (Oct. 22).
Effects on central and southern Taiwan, including the outlying Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu areas, remain highly uncertain according to forecasters. The Taiwan Typhoon Forum advises the public to monitor weather updates closely due to the inherently unpredictable nature of autumn typhoon systems. ◼
